Market Prospects of Electric Vehicles: Modelling competition of alternative and enhanced conventional vehicle technologies

Electric vehicles are competing with other alternatives and enhanced conventional vehicle technologies in the new vehicles market, driven by the need to reduce CO2 emissions of automobiles. The simulation tool VECTOR21 models a virtual market of vehicle propulsion technologies and customers buying new vehicles with a dynamic least-cost approach in order to fulfill specified CO2 goals for the future car fleet. Eventually, by comparison of two scenarios calculated with the model being calibrated for the German car market, we show conditions under which alternative vehicle technologies reach a break-through on the market.