FORECASTING VALUES OF CHROMATICITY OF DRINKING AND SOURCE WATERS USING ARIMA MODEL AND NEURAL NETWORK

Aim. In the present investigation artificial neural network (ANN) and ARIMA-model are compared for forecasting of data of colour of water. Methods. Data corresponds to the colour of water of groundwater and drinking water of water intake of south-east region of the Republic of Belarus. The definition of colour was carried out for the period from 2009 to 2017. twice a day, the time series of values included 5215 values. The parameters of the models were estimated by 85% of the time series values, and the remaining 15% of the values (the test period) compared the forecast values with the actual ones. Optimal configurations of ARIMA-models were determined from the results of comparing the averaged values of the root mean squared errors (RMSE); optimal configurations of ANN were determined from the results of comparing the averaged values of RMSE and correlation coefficients (CC) on the test periods. Results. Comparison of forecasting methods was carried out on the basis of the averaged values of mean absolute error and mean relative error on the test periods. It was revealed that ANN allows to obtain the predicted values of colour of water more accurate than ARIMA-model. Main conclusions. Software implementation of ANN in the MATLAB environment empowers with sufficient accuracy get forecast values of groundwater and drinking water for 100 values.