The Dynamics of Crime Opportunities: Evidences from Weather Conditions and Spatial Pattern of Residential Neighborhood in Ibadan, Nigeria

Not much is known about spatial-temporal variations of crime in Nigeria. The gap is addressed by this study, having examined the pattern of assaults, break-ins, and robberies in the city of Ibadan, Nigeria. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the odds that each crime will occur under the effects of weather conditions and spatial characteristics of residential neighborhood. Findings reveal that assaults and robberies are intense in the high-density areas, whereas the risk of break-ins is stronger in the low-density neighborhoods. Results show that the risk of assaults and break-ins is strong in the dry season, whereas, in the rainy season, robberies are more frequent. Similar to previous international research, findings in this study are largely in line with the frameworks of routine activities, social disorganization, and temperature aggression, which emphasizes that crime will always display an uneven distribution and that this variation is the result of the interrelationship bet...