Predicting upgrade failures using dependency analysis

Upgrades in component based systems can disrupt other components. Being able to predict the possible consequence of an upgrade just by analysing inter-component dependencies can avoid errors and downtime. In this paper we precisely identify in a repository the components p whose upgrades force a large set of others components to be upgraded. We are also able to discriminate whether all the future versions of p have the same impact, or whether there are different classes of future versions that have different impacts. We perform our analysis on Debian, one of the largest FOSS distributions.