Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on combined areal source model: Monte Carlo approach and sensitivity analyses

Abstract We create and test a framework for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using Monte Carlo simulation, recently developed models of seismic source zones and modern ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE). A generalized seismic source model containing 43 zones has been compiled and seven GMPEs were selected. The assessment was performed on the basis of 100 synthetic seismic sub-catalogs with duration 10,000 years each. The hazard curves were calculated for the nodes of 0.25°×0.25° grid and the hazard maps were created in terms of PGA, PGV and seismic intensity for rock sites. Preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the importance of the input parameters and the level of uncertainty introduced by the parameters. The developed framework and the results of PSHA provide a benchmark for the comprehensive seismic hazard and seismic risk analysis and up-to-date seismic hazard maps for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.