Modeling the effect of land use/land cover on nitrogen, phosphorous and dissolved oxygen loads in the Velhas River using the concept of exclusive contribution area

Non-point source water pollution is a major problem in most parts of the world, but is also very difficult to quantify and control since it is not easily separated from point sources and can theoretically originate from the whole watershed. In this article, we evaluate the relationship between land use and land cover and four water pollution parameters in a watershed in Southeast Brazil. The four parameters are nitrate, total ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorous, and dissolved oxygen. To help concentrate on non-point source pollution, only data from the wet seasons of the time period (2001–2013) were analysed, based on the fact that precipitation causes runoff which is the main cause of diffuse pollution. The parameters measured were transformed into loads, which were in turn associated with an exclusive contribution area, so that every measuring station could be considered independent. Analyses were also performed on riparian zones of different widths to verify if the effect of the land cover on the water quality of the stream decreases with the increased distance. Pearson correlation coefficients indicate that urban areas and agriculture/pasture tend to worsen water quality (source). Conversely, forest and riparian areas have a reducing effect on pollution (sink). The best results were obtained for total ammonia nitrogen and dissolved oxygen using the whole exclusive contribution areas with determination coefficients better than R2≈0.8. Nitrate and total phosphorous did not produce valid models. We suspect that the transformation delay from total ammonia nitrogen to nitrate might be an important factor for the poor result for this parameter. For phosphorous, we think that the phosphorous sink in the bottom sediment might be the most limiting factor explaining the failure of our models.