The Spatial–Temporal Trend Analysis of Schistosomiasis from 1997 to 2010 in Anhui Province, Eastern China

Abstract. Schistosomiasis is still prevalent in some parts of China. A shift in strategy from morbidity control to elimination has led to great strides in the past several decades. The objective of this study was to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of schistosomiasis in Anhui, an eastern province of China. In this study, township-based parasitological data were collected from annual cross-sectional surveys during 1997–2010. The kernel k-means method was used to identify spatial clusters of schistosomiasis, and an empirical mode decomposition technique was used to analyze the temporal trend for Schistosoma japonicum in each clustered region. Overall, the prevalence of schistosomiasis remained at a low level except for the resurgence in 2005. According to the Calinski–Harabas index, all the townships were classified into three different clusters (median prevalence: 3.6 per 10,100, 1.8 per 10,000 and 1.7 per 10,000), respectively representing high-, median-, and low-risk clusters. There was an increasing tendency observed for the disease over time. The prevalence increased rapidly from 2003 to 2005, peaked in 2006, and then decreased afterward in the high-risk cluster. A moderate increase was observed in the median-risk cluster from 1998 to 2006, but there was an obvious decreasing tendency in the low-risk cluster after the year 2000. The spatial and temporal patterns of schistosomiasis were nonsynchronous across the three clusters. Disease interventions may be adjusted according to the risk levels of the clusters.