A Simplified Approach to Operational InSAR Monitoring of Volcano Deformation in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Case Study of Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea

The primary goal of operational volcano monitoring is the timely identification of volcanic unrest. This provides critical information to decision makers tasked with mitigating the societal impacts of volcanic eruptions. Volcano deformation is recognized as a key indicator of unrest at many active volcanoes and can be used to provide insight into the depth and geometry of the magma source. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a remote sensing technique that has detected deformation at many volcanoes globally, but most often with hindsight. To date, the use of InSAR for operational volcano monitoring has been limited to a few cases and only in high income countries. Yet a vast number of active volcanoes are located in low- and middle-income countries, where resources for operational monitoring are constrained. In these countries, InSAR could provide deformation monitoring at many active volcanoes, including those that have no existing ground monitoring infrastructure. Several barriers combine to make uptake of InSAR into operational volcano monitoring difficult in most countries, but particularly in resource-constrained environments. To overcome some of these limiting factors, we propose a simplified processing chain to better incorporate InSAR and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data into the decision-making process at volcano observatories. To combine the InSAR and GNSS data we use a joint modelling procedure that infers volume changes of a spherical source beneath the volcano. The benefits of our approach for operational use include that the algorithm is computationally lightweight and can be run quickly on a standard desktop or laptop PC. This enables a volcano observatory to interpret geodetic data in a timely fashion, and use the information as part of frequent reporting procedures. To demonstrate our approach we combine ALOS-PALSAR InSAR data and continuous GNSS data from the Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea between 2007 and 2011. Joint inversion of the two datasets indicates volume loss of ~1x107 m3 (deflation) occurring between February 2008 and November 2009, followed by volume gain of ~2.5x106 m3 (inflation) until February 2011 in a magma body situated ~1.5 km beneath the caldera.