The Predictive Validity of a Two-Step Selection Process to Medical Schools

Background. A two-step selection process, consisting of cognitive and noncognitive measures, is common in medical school admissions. Objective. To estimate the validity of this process in predicting academic performance, taking into account the complex and pervasive effect of range restriction in this context. Methods. The estimation of the validity of the two-step process included a sequential correction for range restriction and an estimation of the predictive validity of the process in its entirety. Data were collected from 1,002 undergraduate students from four cohorts (2006/07–2009/10) at three medical schools in Israel. Results. The predictive validity of the composite of the cognitive measures with respect to Year 1 performance was high, resulting entirely from the predictive validity of the admission test (a standard measure of ability). The predictive validity of the noncognitive measure was moderate. The predictive validity of the process in its entirety was high, its value dependent on the weights given to the cognitive and noncognitive measures. Conclusion. A cognitive admission test has a high predictive validity with respect to Year 1 performance. The addition of a noncognitive measure in the second step does not markedly diminish the predictive validity of the selection process with respect to academic achievement.