Spatial dynamics of agricultural land in Banyuasin Regency, South Sumatera: Its opportunities and threats

The availability of agricultural land, especially paddy fields, is an inseparable part of efforts to maintain national food security and engage SDGs’ second goal. Changes in land cover/land use can occur due to social, political, economic, cultural, natural, and technological factors. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) operate as a tool to comprehend the changes related to the driver’s factors. The purpose of this study was to examine the spatial dynamics of paddy land cover in the Banyuasin Regency for more than 2 decades using the Markov Chain approach and to analyze the inhibiting and supporting factors in developing paddy farming in the region. The inhibiting factor discussed in this study is the potentiality of floods in paddy fields. The results showed that paddy fields in Banyuasin Regency experienced the widest decrease of 2,863.80 hectares and encountered the largest increase of 14,463.45 hectares in 1990-2003. The threat factor also influenced changes in the area of agricultural land in the form of inundation. The flood inundation crisis peaked in 2010, where 832.58 hectares out of 164,562.37 hectares of paddy field were flooded. However, the potency in developing lowland rice farming on swamps in Banyuasin Regency is considerably beneficial. This can be examined from the value of Revenue-Cost Ratio (R/C Ratio), averaging 3.65, and BenefitCost Ratio (B/C Ratio) of 2.65 with an average production of 5-7 tons/hectares/season.