Galton's Quincunx: Probabilistic causation in developmental behavior genetics.

Abstract In what sense are associations between particular markers and complex behaviors made by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and related techniques discoveries of, or entries into the study of, the causes of those behaviors? In this paper, we argue that when applied to individuals, the kinds of probabilistic ‘causes’ of complex traits that GWAS-style studies can point towards do not provide the kind of causal information that is useful for generating explanations; they do not, in other words, point towards useful explanations of why particular individuals have the traits that they do. We develop an analogy centered around Galton's “Quincunx” machine; while each pin might be associated with outcomes of a certain sort, in any particular trial, that pin might be entirely bypassed even if the ball eventually comes to rest in the box most strongly associated with that pin. Indeed, in any particular trial, the actual outcome of a ball hitting a pin might be the opposite of what is usually expected. While we might find particular pins associated with outcomes in the aggregate, these associations will not provide causally relevant information for understanding individual outcomes. In a similar way, the complexities of development likely render impossible any moves from population-level statistical associations between genetic markers and complex behaviors to an understanding of the causal processes by which individuals come to have the traits that they in fact have.