Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China

ABSTRACTDriven by global climate change, sea-level rise would exacerbate the hazard of extreme water level as a disaster-inducing factor. Based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, this study explored the inundation risk of extreme water levels under climate change and Rongcheng was a case study. Pearson Type III (P-III) distribution was used for refitting recurrence periods of extreme water level. Expected losses exposed to extreme water levels were assessed through inundated area and depth per-unit loss values and vulnerability curves of land-use types. Results indicated that sea-level rise significantly shortened recurrence period in 2050 and 2100, which suggested a higher frequency of extreme water level in future. A large increase in expected direct losses would reach an average of 60% with a 0.82-m sea-level rise (under RCP 8.5) in 2100. Moreover, affected population and gross domestic product would grow 4.95% to 13.87% and 3.66% to 10.95% in 2050, respectively, while the...