Evaluating epidemic intervention policies with systems thinking: a case study of dengue fever in Mexico

In developing national epidemiological control strategies, understanding the environment in which an epidemic develops, the complex interrelationships of the relevant variables and their resulting behavior requires responsible health decision makers to develop comprehensive, effective policies. Systemic decision models can help managers understand the impact of alternative strategies for addressing disasters such as national epidemics. This paper discusses an interactive, systemic decision model developed in the Secretariat of Health of Mexico, at the advisory level, highlighting how the change in decision-making perspective provided valuable insight into strategically managing the control of dengue, a potentially catastrophic epidemic. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.