Tool for Quantitative Risk Analysis of Urban Flooding

One of the effects of climate change is an increasing frequency of heavy rainfall events, which in turn leads to increased flooding damage in urban areas. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for dynamic risk evaluation that can be used to fulfil several of the goals in the European Flood Risk Management Directive. Flood risk analysis was performed as a spatial GIS analysis with the FME software. The primary data source for the analysis was a 1D/2D model calculation, wherein 1D models described the pipeline network and the watercourses and a 2D model described surface runoff. An ArcGIS online platform was developed to visualize the results in a format understandable for decision makers. The method and tool were tested for the Norwegian capital of Oslo. The tool developed in the study enabled the efficient analysis of consequences for various precipitation scenarios. Results could be used to identify the areas most vulnerable to flooding and prioritize areas in which measures need to be implemented. The study showed that for urban areas in steep terrain, it is essential to include water velocity and depth-integrated velocity in risk analysis in addition to water depths and pipe network capacity.