Application of continuous turbidity sensors to supplement estimates of total phosphorus concentrations in the Grand River, Ontario, Canada

Abstract Accurate estimates of total phosphorus (TP) loadings to eastern Lake Erie are critical for developing load reduction targets and for determining if commitments are being met under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement , 2012 (GLWQA). Currently, loading calculations from Canadian priority tributaries are supported by year-round event-focused water quality sampling using automated samplers and laboratory water quality measurements. Here we evaluate the suitability of continuously-measured parameters, namely turbidity and flow, to supplement or enhance knowledge about TP concentrations in the Grand River, ON, by providing continuous data alongside event-focused sample measurements. A series of simple and multiple linear regression models were evaluated and compared with respect to their ability to predict TP water concentrations as a function of different combinations of explanatory variables. Explanatory variables included turbidity, flow, season and flow condition (i.e. hysteresis). The models that performed best explained 63–65% of the variation of TP which is comparable to surrogate model applications in the U. S and elsewhere. Additional model calibration work is needed due to gaps in turbidity data particularly during high flow events. We emphasize the need for continued automated, event-focused water quality sampling. However, provided that operational challenges are overcome, our results indicate that sensor-derived water quality parameters to predict TP concentrations is a promising technique that may supplement and improve nutrient loading estimates in the Grand River into the future and provides guidance for the utilization of this method in other tributaries.