Analyzing Real-world Accidents for Test Scenario Generation for Automated Vehicles

Identification of test scenarios for Automated Driving Systems (ADSs) remains a key challenge for the Verification & Validation of ADSs. Various approaches including data based approaches and knowledge based approaches have been proposed for scenario generation. Identifying the conditions that lead to high severity traffic accidents can help us not only identify test scenarios for ADSs, but also implement measures to save lives and infrastructure resources. Taking a data based approach, in this paper, we introduce a novel accident data analysis method for generating test scenarios where we analyze UK's Stats19 accident data to identify trends in high severity accidents for test scenario generation. This paper first focuses on the severity of the accidents with the goal of relating it to static and time-dependent internal and external factors in a comprehensive way taking into account Operational Design Domain (ODD) properties, e.g. road, environmental conditions, and vehicle properties and driver characteristics. For this purpose, the paper utilizes a data grouping strategy (coarse-graining) and builds a logistic regression approach, derived from conventional regression models, in which emerging features become more pronounced, while uninteresting features and noise weaken. The approach makes the relationship between the factors and outcome variable more visible and hence well suited for the severity analysis. The method shows superior performance as compared to ordinary logistic models measured by goodness of fit and accounting for model variance $(R^{2}=0.05$ for the ordinary model, $R^{2}=0.85$ for the current model). The model is then used to solve the inverse problem of constructing high-risk pre-crash conditions as test scenarios for simulation based testing of ADSs.