Assessing European futures in an age of reflexive security

Over the past decade, European assessments of organised crime have evolved into strategic future-oriented intelligence systems. Policy-makers want to be informed about coming organised crime threats and challenges. We use the concepts of reflexive government and reflexive security to explore this shift in EU policing, and suggest that strategic planning in the field of organised crime control might benefit from the use of scenario methodologies. We focus on the assumptions that underpin scenario exercises and we outline how they might be developed.