Spatial simulation and modelling of the early Pleistocene site of DS (Bed I, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania): a powerful tool for predicting potential archaeological information from unexcavated areas

Spatial statistical models are powerful tools for creating simulation and prediction models. Here, we apply such models to the newly discovered 1.84 Ma site of DS (Bed I, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania). Ongoing excavation has already exposed 370 m2 of the same discrete archaeological level. This is the biggest window into an Early Pleistocene anthropogenic site. With such a large area opened, modelling based on spatial trends (using coordinates) and on covariates (topography) has enabled the creation of predictions about where the densest concentrations of unexcavated materials may lie. Following this modelling, excavation has confirmed the predictions; the densest clusters of stone tools and fossils bones are palaeotopographically and palaeoecologically influenced. Spatial statistical analysis is, therefore, a powerful analytical tool to model and understand in-site and off-site hominin behaviour as an interaction between hominins and environments.