Identification and Preliminary Validation of a Plasma Profile Associated with Cognitive Decline in Dementia and At-Risk Individuals: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

: Biomarker discovery is a major need for earlier dementia diagnosis. We evaluated a plasma signature of amyloid, metallo-proteinases (MMPs), and inflammatory markers in a cohort of at-risk individuals and individuals clinically diagnosed with probable Alzheimer's disease (pAD). Using multiplex arrays, we measured Aβ40, Aβ42, MMP-1, MMP-3, MMP-9, IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 in plasma from 107 individuals followed every 6 months for 3 years. Final diagnoses included: pAD (n = 28), mild cognitive impairment (MCI, n = 30), subjective memory impairment (SMI, n = 30), and asymptomatic (NCI, n = 19). Blood was drawn at final follow-up. We used linear and logistic regressions to examine biomarker associations with prior known decline on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG); as well disease progression by the time of blood-draw. We derived a biomarker composite from the individual markers, and tested its association with a clinical diagnosis of pAD. Lower Aβ40 and Aβ42 and higher IL-8, IL-10, and TNF-α were associated with greater cognitive decline per the MoCA and CAMCOG. MMP-3 was higher in SMI, MCI, and pAD than NCI. Whereas the other investigative molecules did not differ between groups, composite scores-created using MoCA/CAMCOG-based trends in Aβ40, Aβ42, MMP-1, MMP-3, IL-8, IL-10, and TNF-α- were associated with a final diagnosis of pAD (c-statistic 0.732 versus 0.602 for age-sex alone). Thus, plasma amyloid, MMP, and inflammatory biomarkers demonstrated differences in individuals with cognitive deterioration and/or progression to MCI/pAD. Our findings support studying these markers earlier in the continuum of probable AD as well as in specific dementias.