DAMPAK MILITARY DEPLOYMENT RUSIA DI KALININGRADTERHADAP KEAMANAN NEGARA-NEGARA BALTIK, 2014-2017

Pascakrisis Ukraina terjadi pada 2014, ketegangan di Eropa Timur meningkat. Krisis Ukraina menunjukkan kesediaan Rusia untuk menggunakan kekuatan militer terhadap negara lain demi mencapai kepentingan nasionalnya. Tidak hanya itu, Rusia juga melakukan aksi-aksi yang dianggap mengkhawatirkan lainnya seperti meningkatkan military deployment di Kaliningrad, sebuah eksklave Rusia yang terletak di antara Lithuania dan Polandia. Peningkatan military deployment Rusia di Kaliningrad ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran Negara-negara Baltik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan military deployment Rusia di Kaliningrad periode tahun 2014-2017 serta menganalisis dampak military deployment tersebut terhadap keamanan Negara-negara Baltik. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif dengan desain penelitian studi kasus. Kerangka analitis yang digunakan adalah teori Regional Security Complex, konsep military deployment, security dilemma dan balance of power. Melalui teori Regional Security Complex, peneliti menemukan hubungan antara Rusia dan Negara-negara Baltik dalam suatu security complex yang mana primary security keempat negara terhubung bersama secara dekat hingga keamanan nasional negara-negara tersebut tergabung dan tidak dapat dipisahkan satu sama lain. Berdasarkan hubungan tersebut, maka aksi-aksi yang dilakukan Rusia, Estonia, Latvia dan Lithuania memiliki dampak terhadap keamanan nasional satu sama lain. Hal ini termasuk peningkatan military deployment Rusia di Kaliningrad memiliki dampak terhadap keamanan Negara-negara Baltik. Hasil dari penelitian ini menemukan bahwa dampak dari military deployment Rusia di Kaliningrad adalah berubahnya berbagai kebijakan keamanan Estonia, Latvia dan Lithuania, serta dampak isolasi Negara-negara Baltik dari dunia luar. Kata kunci: Rusia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Negara-negara Baltik, Regional Security Complex. Military Deployment ABSTRACT After the Ukraine crisis arose in 2014, the tensions in Eastern Europe increased. The Ukraine crisis showed Russia's willingness to use its military power against other country to achieve its national interests. Not only that, Russia also carried out actions such as increasing the military deployment in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave located between Lithuania and Poland. The increase of Russia’s military deployment in Kaliningrad alarmed Baltic States. This research aims to explain Russia’s military deployment in Kaliningrad in the period of 2014-2017 and to analyze this military deployment's impact on the Baltic States security. This research is a descriptive research with study case study design. Analytical frameworks used in this research are Regional Security Complex theory, the concept of military deployment, security dilemma, and balance of power. By using Regional Security Complex theory, the researcher found a relationship between Russia and the Baltic States in a security complex which their primary security had been so interlinked that their security problems could not reasonably be analyzed or resolved apart from one another. Based on this relationship, the actions carried out by Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had impacts to each other’s national security. This including the increase in the Russian military deployment in Kaliningrad had impact(s) on the Baltic States’ security. The results of this study found that the increase of the Russian military deployment in Kaliningrad change Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania’s security policy, as well as the isolation of the Baltic States from the outside world. Keywords: Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Baltic States, Regional Security Complex. Military Deployment