AIRLINE CARGO DEMAND

The prime threats to the industry were felt to be fuel shortages, increased operating costs, depressed demand resulting from economic recession, competition arising from trucking deregulation, and possible constraints on international traffic. Opportunities include modal expansion made possible by truck and rail deregulation, Third World economic expansion, and high inflation notes causing more commodities to cross the threshold of desirability for movement by air freight. The consensus was that domestic and international air freight would grow at rates of 5.5 and 6 percent, respectively, over the next decade. Three research needs were identified: to better define air freight markets, by isolating discrete components that create demand for movement by air, to develop new forecasting methods encompassing factors not quantifiable, and to find ways to identify aircraft characteristics and specifications needed by the airline industry to meet the needs of the next ten to twenty years.