Influence of Weather, Wetland Availability, and Mallard Abundance on Productivity of Great Lakes Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos)

Waterfowl rely on breeding habitat availability for successful reproduction. Breeding habitat availability likely changes throughout the season and among years as weather patterns change and thus productivity rates are likely susceptible to these changes. We used data from 1961 to 2011 to investigate effects of weather, breeding habitat availability and abundance of breeding mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) on productivity rates of mallards breeding in the Great Lake states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin; hereafter GLS). We hypothesized that productivity rates would increase with wetter and warmer conditions however, extreme temperatures may have a negative impact and that high breeding density may negatively impact productivity rates. Specifically, we looked at the effects of average June and July temperature and precipitation, the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (hereafter PHDI), and wetland counts to model productivity rates across the three states for the time series. We used a reduced time series model set to evaluate the impacts of wetland counts on productivity. We found that in general, wetter conditions, as indexed by high positive PHDI values and relationships with pond abundance, positively affected productivity. We believe that breeding habitat availability is likely a reasonable predictor of mallard productivity rates in the GLS.