ASEAN and China Exports of Labour-intensive Manufactures: Performance and Prospects

The ASEAN countries and China have substantially increased their exports of labour intensive manufactures (LIM) in the last two decades and the emergence of China as an exporter of manufactures in the eighties will present the ASEAN exporters with increasing competition in the future. The present paper examines the hypothesis that ASEAN may be crowded out of world LIM markets by China. It first presents and analyses the available data on commodity composition and country distribution of ASEAN and Chinese LIM exports and then examines the respective patterns of comparative advantage and considers the likely future impact of China's entry into world LIM trade on ASEAN development. In the final analysis education and work-force skills will be decisive factors in future developments, and the most important ASEAN exports are likely to be manufactures and services that are relatively intensive in human capital and technology rather than labour intensive.