Weed Suppression Success Can Depend on Removal Pattern and Gene Dispersal Distance: Modeling Callery Pear

Abstract Substantial resources are spent each year on weed control, but in many cases eradication projects are incomplete. Here we used the computer program NEWGARDEN to model whether alternate geometric patterns of incomplete removal (99% removed) of the increasingly invasive Callery pear from an isolated fragment differentially affect the rate of population recovery and genetic diversity retention. Geometric patterns of remaining founders within the fragment (1% of the fragment area) included: (A) a long rectangular strip centered on one edge; (B) a square at one corner; (C) a central square; or (D) scattered randomly throughout the entire fragment. Population re-growth and genetic diversity retention measures for each geometric removal pattern were modeled under two contrasting gene dispersal patterns (via both offspring and pollen): short versus long dispersal (both leptokurtic relative to the pistillate plant). After 14 bouts of mating, the greatest difference in census size among comparative recover...