Forecasting the remaining reservoir capacity in the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed

Abstract Sediment accumulation behind a dam is a significant factor in reservoir operation and watershed management. There are many dams located within the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed whose operations have been adversely affected by excessive reservoir sedimentation. Reservoir sedimentation effects include reduction of flood control capability and limitations to both water supply withdrawals and power generation due to reduced reservoir storage. In this research, the sediment accumulation rates of twelve reservoirs within the Great Lakes watershed were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The estimated sediment accumulation rates by SWAT were compared to estimates relying on radionuclide dating of sediment cores and bathymetric survey methods. Based on the sediment accumulation rate, the remaining reservoir capacity for each study site was estimated. Evaluation of the anthropogenic impacts including land use change and dam construction on the sediment yield were assessed in this research. The regression analysis was done on the current and pre-European settlement sediment yield for the modeled watersheds to predict the current and natural sediment yield in un-modeled watersheds. These eleven watersheds are in the state of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, New York, and Wisconsin.