An Adaptive Approach for the Calculation of Ensemble Gridpoint Probabilities

AbstractTraditional ensemble probabilities are computed based on the number of members that exceed a threshold at a given point divided by the total number of members. This approach has been employed for many years in coarse-resolution models. However, convection-permitting ensembles of less than ~20 members are generally underdispersive, and spatial displacement at the gridpoint scale is often large. These issues have motivated the development of spatial filtering and neighborhood postprocessing methods, such as fractional coverage and neighborhood maximum value, which address this spatial uncertainty. Two different fractional coverage approaches for the generation of gridpoint probabilities were evaluated. The first method expands the traditional point probability calculation to cover a 100-km radius around a given point. The second method applies the idea that a uniform radius is not appropriate when there is strong agreement between members. In such cases, the traditional fractional coverage approach ...