Prediction of long-term disability in Chinese patients with multiple sclerosis: A prospective cohort study.

Abstract Background Much information about outcomes of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been studied in Caucasian cohorts. However, little is known about the predictors of long-term disability in Chinese patients with MS. The aim of this prospective, observational study is to identify the prognostic factors associated with long-term disability progression (expanded disability status scale, EDSS=6.0) in Chinese patients with relapsing-onset MS. Methods Based on data from the MSNMOBase registry within the neurology department of Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) in China, this hospital-based cohort study was conducted to estimate the median time of attaining disability endpoint (EDSS = 6.0) by Kaplan-Meier curves, and identify factors that associated with disability progression by Cox proportional regression analysis. Results A total of 415 consecutive, eligible patients with MS were registered in the MSNMOBase of PUMCH and prospectively followed from 2011 to 2019. Of these patients, 365 patients with relapsing-onset MS were analyzed. The median time to reach an EDSS of 6.0 was 22.0 (95% CI 16.5-27.5) years. Age at disease onset greater than 50 years (HR 3.846, 95% CI 1.240–11.932, P=0.020), incomplete recovery from first attack (HR 2.107, 95% CI 1.168–3.800, P=0.013), and ≥2 relapses during the first 2 years after onset (HR 2.217, 95% CI 1.148–4.281, P=0.018) significantly associated with a higher hazard ratio to reach an EDSS of 6.0. Conclusions Our results confirm the importance of age at onset, recovery from the first attack, and number of relapses during the first 2 years after disease onset as predictors of disability progression in Chinese patients with relapsing-onset MS.