Land Use/land cover change analysis using Markov-Based model for Eleyele Reservoir

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) are important components of the environmental system and changes in it mirror the impacts of human activities on the environment. These impacts needed to be determined in order to get a clear picture of the extent at which different land use practices affect hydrologic regime and water quality. Therefore, this study analyzed the effects of LULC on Eleyele reservoir for a period of 32 years. Landsat images of 1984, 2000 and 2016 covered by path 191 and rows 55 were acquired, a modified version of Aderson scheme of LULC classification was used to stratify the images, while the LULC map was analyzed and projected until year 2032 using IDRISI Selva 17.0 and ERDAS 2013 softwares respectively. Changes that have occurred within the study area were determined using LULC MARKOV. Land Use Land Cover built up area increased from 688.30 ha to 952.68 ha and from 952.68 ha to 2164.5 ha between years 1984 to 2000, and 2000 to 2016 respectively. LULC maps of 2000 and 2016 showed the open water also reduced from 101.6 ha in year 2000 to 61.74 ha in 2016. DEM showed that 8.5%, and 1.9% transitioned to vegetation cover and built up area in 1984 and 2000 respectively. Land Use Land Cover MARKOV chain analysis shows that by projection, the reservoir area will reduce further to 39.08 ha by the year 2032. The study has established that reserved forest zone suffered degradation with a noticeable increase in encroachment on the reservoir. LULC approach can be used to predict the effect of land use on reservoirs. Keywords: land use; land cover; analysis; model; Eleyele; reservoir