[Estimates and prediction of prostate cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence in China, 2008].

Objective To estimate the incidence,mortality and 5-year prevalence of prostate cancer in China,in 2008.Methods Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005)was used to estimate the incidence,mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of prostate cancer in China in 2008.Mathematical models were used to predict the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in the next 20 years.Results In 2008,the incidence of prostate cancer was 33 802 (2.1％),with the incidence rate as 4.3/100 000,which ranked the eighth among all the male cancers.Mortality of prostate cancer in China was 14 297 (1.2％) with the mortality rate of 1.8/100 000,which ranked eleventh among all the male cancers.The 5-year prevalence rate of prostate cancer in China was 75 535 (3.5％) with the proportion of 13.8/100 000,ranking the seventh among all the male cancers.The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in men before the age of 60 maintained at a low level,but rose rapidly after the age of 60.Data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.Conclusion Both incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would keep increasing in the future.Prevention and control programs for prostate cancer should be strengthened. Key words: Prostate tumors;  Incidence;  Mortality;  Prevalence