Reliability and capacity: a spatial load forecasting method for a performance based regulatory environment

This paper presents a load forecasting method that yields results useful for substation and feeder planning while providing a conceptually simple framework for data entry. The method couples existing system and load knowledge, load growth patterns and horizon year information to permit development of multiple scenarios for spatial load growth progression from existing land use patterns. In addition, the method allows for an intimate connection between the spatial load forecasting model, a circuit model, and a reliability model. This results in a fully integrated planning tool where the impact of load growth on both electrical performance and reliability performance can be quantified. This type of analysis will be critical for utilities subject to performance based rates.