Electric two-wheelers in India and Viet Nam : market analysis and environmental impacts

Electric two-wheelers, which include vehicles ranging from electric bicycles to electric scooters, are becoming increasingly popular and important forms of urban transport in Asian cities, particularly in the People's Republic of China (PRC). While electric two-wheelers' popularity is evident in the PRC, their acceptance and adoption in other Asian countries is much more modest. The potential environmental benefit to Asian cities of electric two-wheelers could be significant, especially if electric two-wheelers replaced gasoline scooters and motorcycles. Electric two-wheelers in the PRC have been shown to have some of the lowest emission rates per kilometer compared to any motorized mode. This report consists of three main analyses for two Asian cities, Ahmedabad, India, and Ha Noi, Viet Nam. The first is a market analysis of both cities, using disaggregate stated-preference choice modeling method derived from user surveys to estimate the factors that influence electric two-wheeler purchase. Factors tested include vehicle price and performance characteristics, as well as variables like tax and licensing policy. The second analysis investigates electric two-wheeler emission rates based on electricity generation characteristics in Viet Nam and India. These analyses were conducted using two aggregate models to estimate primary pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}). The final section of this report combines the market models with the emission estimates to develop scenarios of vehicle adoption and the influence of those varied adoption rates on average emissions of the two-wheeler population in each of these cities. Electric two-wheelers are much cleaner than their gasoline-powered two-wheeled counterparts on most metrics. Gasoline two-wheelers emit approximately double the CO{sub 2}, an order of magnitude more nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 10, and several orders of magnitude more volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. Particulate matter 2.5 and sulfur dioxide emissions are unknown for gasoline two-wheelers, but electric two-wheelers could have higher emission rates of these pollutants because of reliance on fossil fuel power plants. Electric-two-wheelers in India have higher emission rates than those in Viet Nam because of India's higher reliance on coal power plants and higher electricity transmission loss rates. Viet Nam derives much of its electricity from natural gas power plants. E-scooters have the potential to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Viet Name and India. E-scooter adoption can increase with a combination of increased performance, reduced price, regulations favoring e-scooters (or harming gasoline two-wheelers), improved infrastructure, and effective marketing. These are all difficult to achieve, but the benefits could supplant other strategies toward reducing environmental problems.