Evaluation of the coordinated development of urbanization-resources-environment from the incremental perspective of Xinjiang, China

Abstract Xinjiang has experienced a relatively rapid economic growth over the last few decades due to China's silk road economic belt initiative. This study aims to develop a coordinated development index for exploring the relationship between urbanization, resources and environment from 2004 to 2018. The inflection points of resources environment pressure caused by urbanization rate were measured using the Kaya identity, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model and regression analysis. The results show that: (1) Urbanization has growth rapidly, with the comprehensive urbanization level of 0.851 in 2018, which is about eight times higher than that in 2004. In contrast, resources and environment have decreased at an average annual declining rate of 0.77% and 5.29%, respectively; (2) From 2004 to 2018, the coordination degrees of the resources-environment, urbanization-environment, and urbanization-resources had a fluctuating growth trend, with the coordination values of 0.505–0.987, 0.171–0.847 and 0.469–0.923, respectively. Overall, the coordinated development index of urbanization, resources and environment has achieved an average annual growth rate of 1.89%; and (3) The urbanization rate of Xinjiang has reached 50.91% in 2018, enters middle rising channel of inverted N-shaped curve implied that the resources environment pressure tended to deteriorate first and then gradually improve. Therefore, it is necessary continue to follow the path of resources-conserving urbanization and environment-friendly urbanization to achieve the sustainable development in Xinjiang.