CONTEMPORARY AND FUTURE POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF Cedrela fissilis Vell. UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

ABSTRACT The objective of the present work was to model the climate niche of Cedrela fissilis Vell. and to project the contemporary and future potential spatial distribution considering different climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from the SpeciesLink and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) databases. Altitude data, and 19 climate variables for both present and future conditions were obtained from the WorldClim database. The spatial prediction for the year 2070, considering an optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic one (RCP 8.5), was defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding the concentration of greenhouse gases. The climate niche modeling was performed using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results showed that C. fissilis has a wide geographic distribution, occurring in most South American countries. Its distribution showed a high correlation associated with the isothermal and precipitation variables in the humid month. In future scenarios, impacts on the climatic suitability of the areas in which the species occur, will not be spatially homogeneous. Indeed, reductions of about 47% (RCP4.5) and 63% (RCP8.5) are expected. It is recommended the creation and expansion of Conservation Units (CU) in areas that will remain climatically suitable for this species. The areas that will not have a favorable climate in the future should be considered strategic for genetic rescue and establishment of germplasm banks. Areas changing into a favorable climate should be considered as new areas of ecological and forestry interest.