Methodology for evaluation of road safety improvement measures

The aim of the methodology is to provide its users with a tool evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures, or the effectiveness of individual presented alternatives in respect to the improvement of road safety and reduction of social losses. The methodology consists of three parts. The first part (Chapter 2) describes the procedure to determine expected road accident consequences with the use of a prediction accident model. The model is based on road accident data and traffic and geometry characteristics of a representative set of roundabouts. All theoretically possible combinations of explanatory variables were verified and their influence on road accident rate was estimated. The described model is based on the data from 2009 – 2010. It was necessary to prolong the validity of the model, so that it could be applicable in the future. Therefore, a prognosis of a global safety trend was performed (Chapter 3). The prognosis horizon was set to 2050. In addition, a trend in the number of injuries was predicted on the basis of traffic performances and risks. The aim of the following chapter (Chapter 4) is a financial formulation of losses from road accidents. The calculation was performed in compliance with the certified Methodology for calculation of losses from road accidents. Furthermore, a prognosis of trends in unit costs until 2015 was performed. These costs are one of the input data in the process of the estimation of future costs related to road accidents. At the end of the methodology (Chapter 5) an example of a calculation, summarizing the above mentioned procedure, is shown.