Predicting Survival After Liver Transplantation Using Up-to-Seven Criteria in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract Background Liver transplantation is a controversial issue in the initial management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to demonstrate that up-to-seven could be useful as a model in evaluating potential candidates for liver transplantation for HCC. Methods Between January 1997 and December 2010, 84 patients undergoing liver transplantation were analyzed for HCC. Pathologic variables included the number of lesions, maximal tumor diameter, vascular invasion, and tumor grade. The following variables were recorded: Age, gender, recurrence of HCC, survival, donor age, incidental, Milan criteria, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels. To evaluate variables we used the Kaplan–Meier method, Cox regression and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Results There were 68 (80.9%) patients within up-to-seven criteria and 16 (19.1%) beyond this criteria. AFP levels were 96.4 versus 464.3 ng/dL in patients within versus beyond up-to-seven criteria. The median diameter of the largest nodule was 22.2 versus 32.0 mm in patients within versus beyond up-to-seven criteria, respectively. The median sum of nodules was 1.8 and 5.6 nodules in patients within versus beyond up-to-seven criteria. Vascular invasion was present in 11 (13.0%) patients within versus 7 (8.3%) beyond. Recurrence was observed in 9 (10.7%) patients and only 3 were beyond up-to-seven criteria, 2 had vascular invasion, and another showed poor differentiation. Post liver transplantation survival rates were 87.7%, 74.5%, and 65.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years in patients within up-to-seven versus 80.7%, 51.7%, and 32.1% beyond ( P = .03). Similar results were observed when we applied Milan criteria or expanded Milan criteria. The largest nodule was the only predictive factor after proportional hazard Cox regression application (Beta = 0.037; exponent = 1.0377; Wald = 4.542; P = .03). In the present study, up-to-seven criteria could be useful to evaluate potential liver transplant candidates due to HCC.