Prediction of disability-adjusted life years for diseases due to low fruit intake 2017-2040 in Japan.

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to predict disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate in Japan through 2040 with plausible future scenarios of fruit intake for neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). DESIGN Data from National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017 were used. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model with four future scenarios. Reference scenario maintains the current trend. Best scenario assumes that the goal defined in Health Japan 21 is achieved in 2023 and is kept constant afterwards. Moderate scenario assumes the goal is achieved in 2040. Constant scenario applies the same proportion of 2016 for the period between 2017-2040. SETTING DALYs rates in Japan were predicted for the period between 2017-2040. PARTICIPANTS Human subjects were not utilized. RESULTS In our reference forecast, the DALYs rates in all-ages group were projected to be stable for CVDs and continue increasing for neoplasms and DKDs. Age-group-specific DALYs rates for these three disease groups were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Among men aged 20-49, DALYs attributable to CVDs differed substantially between the scenarios, implying that there is a significant potential for reducing the burden of CVDs by increasing fruit intake at the population level. CONCLUSIONS Our scenario analysis shows that higher fruit intake is associated with lower disease burden in Japan. Further research is required to assess which policies and interventions can be used to achieve an increase in fruit intake as modelled in the scenarios of this study.