Energy Convergence: Integrating Increased Efficiency with Increased Penetration of Renewable Generation

Future trends in integration of efficiency and distributed renewable energy generation in residential buildings are explored including the limit of zero net energy homes (ZNEH). The discussion includes consideration of the potential disruptive impacts of emerging innovations that are expected to occur within the next 3 to 5 years such as high performance insulation options, low cost residential photovoltaic systems, and future improvements in the operation of the electric grid. Analysis of technology pathways using an integrated residential system modeling tool that identifies least cost building designs can contribute to determining the tipping points required to enable large, cost-effective energy savings. Results from the analysis demonstrate that the system interactions and diminishing returns that seem to limit achievement of cost-effective energy savings can also be used to drive energy transformation provided that market strategies focus on total system-level energy savings rather than overly constrained optimization of individual system components.