OPTIMAL INVESTMENT PLANNING THROUGH BALANCING LOAD GROWTH WITH NETWORK RISK

Over the next 20 years in the UK, initiatives to help deliver government low carbon targets are likely to increase the take-up both of electric vehicles and of heat pumps. These additional loads will place greater demands on existing networks, leading to a greater level of network risk experienced by Distribution Network Operators. Network reinforcement is the traditional way of mitigating such increased network risk. This represents a substantial investment, and because of the need to spend capital efficiently, such investments will need to be prioritized and targeted in those areas of highest risk or that deliver the greatest benefit. This paper considers a case study based on a rural network in northern England, and forecasts how long the network will remain compliant with regulatory standards, and how that period of compliance can be extended by minor or major capital expenditure, in conjunction with active network management.