Methodology for Predicting the Risk of Innovative Development in Education: Problems and Solutions

The article is devoted to risk forecasting of innovative development of educational systems in conditions of modernization of Russian education. On the basis of analysis of documents of the state educational policy, scientific books and more than 150 programs of development of educational institutions of Russia the author reveals a number of trends and methodological problems. Among the trends observed: the slowness awareness education sector entities need to risk forecasting of innovative development; the lack of common approaches and requirements to the strategic planning of the activities of educational institutions. The result marked trends is the situation when a successful examples of risk-averse forecasting represented in the Federal and regional programs of development of education is not widespread, is not included in the daily practice of education authorities and educational institutions. Pointing to the need for initiation at all levels of the educational sphere of work on creation а new qualitatively strategic planning documents, among the reasons hindering this process, the author noted insufficient methodological research antirisk problems. As the main methodological problems of forecasting of risks, is still not solved neither in the framework of the General theory of risk, neither in the framework of pedagogical riskology, were highlighted: the lack of a generally accepted scientific understanding of the term «risk» and the lack of a unified approach to the classification of risks. By results of the analysis of specific manifestations of methodological problems were formulated definitions, revealing the essence of the concepts of «risk», «risk factors», «risk activities», were proposed concrete ways of realization of the complex approach to the classification and description of the risks of innovative development of subjects of educational sphere in conditions of modernization.