Towards FET Concept: Pathway to Evaluation of Foresight Effectiveness, Efficiency and Validity

The increasing diversity and interdisciplinary nature of science and technology in a globalised world are exerting mounting pressure on national research and innovation locations to develop clear profiles. Among many instruments to meet this challenge is the systematic analysis and continual monitoring of scientific, societal and technological trends – often done using Foresight. Foresight is expected to provide a reliable basis for the future structuring and profiling of the national research and innovation landscape. Foresight is a complex process which is also reflected in the discussion of the effectiveness, efficiency and validity of Foresight. In the recent years various aspects of Foresight evaluation have seen researchers’ attention across different national and corporate schools of Foresight. Ranging from Foresight exercises’ impact assessment (measuring effectiveness and efficiency of Foresight – summative evaluation) to results verification (validation, windtunelling / wind tunnel testing of Foresight – normative evaluation), separate approaches to the problem at hand exist. However, academic and professional literature on the specific topic is rare, as a problem of openness of methodologies also exists. Aside from these factors, there seems to be a consensus that Foresight science is actively developing and there currently are many gaps in available evaluation methods, which brings us to looking further into the supposed gaps. The paper discusses in depth the effectiveness and efficiency in the light of Foresight and the meaning of both for the validity of Foresight.