Ensemble simulation and predictability analysis on rainstorms via WRFV3.1 with different microphysical parameterization schemes

In order to study the effect of different microphysical parameterization schemes in WRF model on rainstorms simulation and their predictability,10 ensemble members were constructed by choosing different microphysical parameterization schemes from WRFV3.1.1 and two experiments of ensemble forecast were conducted for two precipitation cases,the case from 9-10 June of 2008 in the area of Yangtze-Huaihe River and the other one from 6-7 June of 2008 in south China.Results show that,as regards the rainstorm simulation,the descriptive ability of the different microphysical parameterization schemes was different and the ensemble forecast achieved success in simulation of the two cases.The error of model became large in the first 12 h and then it slowed down or reduced for most of ensemble members.By comparing ETS and RMSE of two cases,it is found that both the parameters in the case occurred in south China became higher than that in Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during different rain intensity,and that the differences between the parameters obtained from different ensemble members became more distinct in the south China case than that in Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin case.In a word,the predictability of model on rainstorms simulation in south China is worse than that in the area of Yangtze-Huaihe River in view of model's error growth.