Uncertainty Modeling of Fatigue Crack Growth and Probabilistic Life Prediction for Welded Joints of Nuclear Stainless Steel.

Welded joints are widely used in the pipeline connection of nuclear power plants. Defects in these joints are an important factor leading to the failure of welded joints. It is critical to study the fatigue crack growth and life prediction methods for the welded joints with defects, to reduce their likelihood. In this paper, we present our study of the uncertainty of fatigue crack propagation and probabilistic life prediction for welded joints of nuclear stainless steel. The standard compact tension (CT) specimens were fabricated according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standard. Fatigue crack propagation tests with different stress ratios were performed on CT specimens, using the Mei Te Si (MTS) fatigue test system. A fatigue crack propagation rate model considering the uncertainty of material parameters, and based on the Paris formula and crack propagation experimental data, was established. A probabilistic life prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulation was developed. The fatigue crack propagation prediction result of a CT specimen was compared with the actual tested result, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, the method was applied to an embedded elliptical crack in welded joints of nuclear stainless steel, to predict the fatigue crack growth life and evaluate the reliability.