Dynamic model of population prediction based on Aging Chains

In order to control the population effectively, population prediction is necessary. At abroad, foreign researchers have built Malthus model and Logistic model to predict the population. In domestic researches, most domestic researchers use or improve above two models without their own research. There is few research about population based on System Dynamics (SD). In this paper, the characteristic of population in our country is analyzed. Then, based on SD method, we build a population prediction model, using Aging Chains, in consideration of aging, gender imbalance and high population mobility. Finally, in order to validate the model, simulation is made with Vensim-PLE, using population data of Beijing. The results are in good agreement with the actual data. It provides a new approach to predict the population.