Value analysis for orbital debris removal

Abstract This paper presents methods for deriving first order monetary benefits from removing individual debris objects in high value sun-synchronous orbits. These analyses are intended to serve as an economic metric by which competing debris removal methods can be evaluated. Orbital debris flux level estimates from NASA’s updated ORDEM2000 model are used to establish small debris population estimates. When combined with the replacement cost of satellites in sun-synchronous orbit, the present value of removing individual small (0.5 cm–2.0 cm) objects from orbit is derived. Large object removal value is more complicated due to the necessity of incorporating effects of impact fragmentation observed with any object about 10 cm or larger. Breakup models published by NASA (Johnson, N.L., Krisko, P.H., Liou, J.C., Anz-Meador, P.D. NASA’s new breakup model of evolve 4.0. Adv. Space Res. 28 (9), 1377–1384, 2001.) provide a basis for establishing fragmentation statistics. Assuming the current population of operational sun-synchronous satellites, removal value is then derived via present value analysis.