Fisheries Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change in Small Island Developing States

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Our ability to identify where adaptation is most needed is constrained by the outputs of vulnerability assessments to date, which typically produce single aggregate rankings, providing limited information on the underlying factors of vulnerability. SIDS have often been banded together to address common sustainability challenges. However, despite their similarities they are not homogenous and differences between the three SIDS groups (Caribbean, Pacific and Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Sea (AIMS)) can be expected. Using a diverse range of relevant indicators and a well-established conceptual framework, we compare the vulnerability of the national fisheries sectors of Caribbean, Pacific, and AIMS SIDS at three levels of decreasing data aggregation: (1) overall vulnerability, (2) across the three components making up overall vulnerability, i.e. exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and (3) across groups of correlated indicators making up each of the aforementioned components. The underlying components and subcomponents show distinct differences between the country groups. The vulnerability of the fisheries sector in Pacific SIDS is associated with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity whereas, in contrast, the vulnerability of Caribbean SIDS is driven by high exposure. Our results highlight that what drives overall vulnerability differs fundamentally among SIDS and that the use of a single aggregate score to assess overall vulnerability masks much of the information on specific underlying factors that is needed to guide adequate adaptation strategies to climate change in SIDS.