A stepped-wedge randomized trial on the impact of early ART initiation on HIV patients' economic welfare in Eswatini.

Background: Since 2015, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all HIV-positive patients. Epidemiological evidence points to important health benefits of immediate ART initiation; however, the policy's economic impact remains unknown. Methods: We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial in Eswatini to determine the causal impact of immediate ART initiation on patients' economic welfare. Fourteen healthcare facilities were non-randomly matched in pairs and then randomly allocated to transition from the standard of care (ART eligibility at CD4 counts of < 350 cells/mm3 until September 2016 and <500 cells/mm3 thereafter) to the 'Early Initiation of ART for All' (EAAA) intervention at one of seven timepoints. Patients, healthcare personnel, and outcome assessors remained unblinded. Data was collected via standardised paper-based surveys with HIV-positive, ART-naive adults who were neither pregnant nor breastfeeding. Outcomes were patients' time use, employment status, household expenditures and household wealth. Results: A total sample of 3,019 participants were interviewed over the duration of the study. The mean number of participants approached at each facility and time step varied from 4 to 112 participants. Using mixed-effects negative binomial regressions accounting for time trends and clustering, we found no significant difference between study arms for any economic outcome. Specifically, the EAAA intervention had no significant effect on non-resting time use (RR= 1.00, [CI: 0.96, 1.05, p=0.93]) or income-generating time use (RR= 0.94, [CI: 0.73,1.20, p=0.61]). Employment and household expenditures decreased slightly but not significantly in the EAAA group, with risk ratios of 0.93 [CI: 0.82, 1.04, p=0.21] and 0.92 [CI: 0.79, 1.06, p=0.26], respectively. We also found no significant treatment effect on households' asset ownership and living standards (RR=0.96, [CI 0.92, 1.00, p=0.253]). Lastly, there was no evidence of heterogeneity in effect estimates by patients' sex, age, education, timing of HIV diagnosis and ART initiation. Conclusions: Given the neutral effect on patients' economic welfare but positive effects on health, our findings support further investments into scaling-up immediate ART for all HIV patients. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02909218 and NCT03789448; ethical approval: Eswatini National Health Service Review Board & Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Review Board.