Report on description of baseline scenario for EU bioeconomy and of alternative scenarios for EU's bioeconomy future : D6.1

Bioeconomy is very important forthe European transition to circular and low carbon societieshowever themultiple and interrelated economic sectors involved increase the complexity of metrics and constraint the comparability of the various options. With the new Green Deal, announced in the end of 2019 asEurope’sresponse to climate and environmental-related challenges,theneed for improved knowledge and foresight capacities to guide policy and decision makingis now more prominent than ever. One of the research topics in the BioMonitor project, isto quantify the bioeconomy’s environmental, economic, and social impacts in the EU and its Member States and perform scenario based quantitative and qualitative assessment to inform future policy making in this domain.This report presents the baseline(BioMonitor Reference Scenario-BRS)and the alternative scenarios that will be used to analyse the development of the bioeconomy in Europeand give model-based evidence on the potential impacts of policy,technological changesand consumer preferences. Scenario results will be quantified (using policy relevant bioeconomy indicators from the ones developed in WP1)in WP3 (ex-post) and WP5 (ex-ante) and will be disseminated by infographics in WP9. In this report there are two Appendixes. Appendix 1 provides an overview of the current policy landscape for EU bioeconomyby sector and value chain stage(i.e. land use & biomass production, conversion, distribution, end use).The information will be used as the basis for the work in Tasks 6.3 and 6.4 to understand which policies per value chain stage need to be included in the Biomonitor scenarioanalysis. Appendix 2 attempts totranslate the existingset of directives, standards, policies and strategies that (in)directly relate to the EU bioeconomy into ‘model’ language. To do so it outlines a non-exhaustive list of drivers that impact policy relevant modelling for the current EU policies.The deliverable will remain a working document throughout the project duration to ensure input from stakeholders and all relevant updates from WPs 1-5 and any changes or updates of relevant policyare integrated during the project.