Interacting effects of cold snaps, rain, and agriculture on the fledging success of a declining aerial insectivore

Climate change predicts the increased frequency, duration, and intensity of inclement weather periods, such as unseasonably low temperatures and prolonged precipitation. Many migratory species have advanced the phenology of important life history stages, and as a result are likely exposed to these periods of inclement spring weather more often, thus risking reduced fitness and population growth. For declining avian species, including aerial insectivores, anthropogenic landscape changes such as agricultural intensification are another driver of population declines. These landscape changes may affect the foraging ability of food provisioning parents, as well as reduce the probability a nestling will survive periods of inclement weather, through for example pesticide exposure impairing thermoregulation and punctual anorexia. Breeding in agro-intensive landscapes may thus exacerbate the negative effects of inclement weather under climate change. We used daily temperatures related to significant reductions of insect prey availability (cold snaps), combined with measures of precipitation, and assessed their impact on Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) fledging success, a declining aerial insectivore breeding across a gradient of agricultural intensification. Fledging success decreased with the number of cold snap days experienced by a brood, and this relationship was worsened during periods of prolonged precipitation. We further found the overall negative effects of experiencing periods of inclement weather are exacerbated in more agro-intensive landscapes. Our results indicate that two of the primary hypothesized drivers of many avian population declines may interact to further increase the rate of declines in certain landscape contexts.