The quantitative genetics of the prevalence of infectious diseases: hidden genetic variation due to Indirect Genetic Effects dominates heritable variation and response to selection

Abstract Infectious diseases have profound effects on life, both in nature and agriculture. Despite the availability of well-established epidemiological theory, however, a quantitative genetic theory of the host population for the endemic prevalence of infectious diseases is almost entirely lacking. While several studies have demonstrated the relevance of the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases for heritable variation and response to selection of the host population, our current theoretical framework of quantitative genetics excludes these dynamics. As a consequence, we do not know which genetic effects of the host population determine the prevalence of an infection, and have no concepts of breeding value and heritable variation for endemic prevalence. Here we integrate quantitative genetics and epidemiology, and propose a quantitative genetic theory for R0 and for the endemic prevalence of an infectious disease. We first identify the genetic factors that determine the prevalence of an infection, using an approach founded in epidemiological theory. Subsequently we investigate the population level consequences of individual genetic variation, both for R0 and for the endemic prevalence. Next, we present expressions for the breeding value and heritable variation, for both prevalence and individual binary disease status, and show that these parameters depend strongly on the level of the prevalence. Results show that heritable variation for endemic prevalence is substantially greater than currently believed, and increases when prevalence approaches zero, while heritability of individual disease status goes to zero. As a consequence, response of prevalence to selection accelerates considerably when prevalence goes down, in contrast to predictions from classical theory. Finally, we show that most of the heritable variation for the endemic prevalence of an infection is hidden due to indirect genetic effects, suggesting a key role for kin-group selection both in the evolutionary history of current populations and for genetic improvement strategies in animals and plants.