Trends in the coronary heart disease risk profile of middle-aged adults

Abstract Purpose To examine recent trends in the coronary heart disease (CHD) risk profiles of the population aged 45 to 64 in the United States. Methods Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) from 2 time periods (1988–1994 and 2005–2008) are used to estimate the CHD risk functions derived from the Framingham Heart Study. The risk functions take account of levels of blood pressure (systolic and diastolic), total and high-density lipoprotein serum cholesterol, diabetes (doctor diagnosed or based on fasting glucose), and smoking status to estimate the 10-year risk of myocardial infarction or coronary death. We estimate the risk functions by gender, race, and age group (45–54 and 55–64). Results The CHD risk profile of middle-aged adults has improved over time. For example, the mean 10-year risk of heart attack or CHD death among persons 55 to 64 years has declined from 7.1% to 5.2%. Declines are seen among both men and women and among non-Hispanic Blacks and non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions Despite increases in diabetes and obesity, the CHD risk profile of middle-aged adults improved during the period from 1988–1994 to 2005–2008.